ICAP Weather Commentary
Thursday July 3, 2008
Prepared by: Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist ICAP Energy
*** Bertha should form in the eastern Atlantic with mid summer to arrive in the states..***
The system in the eastern Atlantic has been classified as TD2. It will probably become Bertha later today. My outlook from yesterday remains the same. The most likely scenario is this is a fish storm that does not come across the Atlantic and curves NW well before the Caribbean. It is rare for these to come all the way west and even more so in early July as it does not fit climatology. A west move really does not fit the current pattern either. There are some cooler seas ahead of it which could slow down the intensification process this weekend, but wind shears are lighter which is bullish to get stronger. My guess when we return on Monday is we have a modest tropical storm in the Central Atlantic.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch another moderately strong cold front takes aim on the Midwest and Ohio Valley this holiday. It is not quite so cool behind it (though not bad) and it won't go as far south this time. A small cool area in the middle of the country is surrounded by a large near normal area. The warmth is still out west with the headline heat in the SW (above 110 in the desert) the next couple of days
Day 6-10 discussion:
I can't find any cool areas for the 6-10 with most of the northern two thirds of the country above normal in mid summer heat and humidity. High pressure ridging takes over much of the country, but it is not appearing strong enough for anything unusual. There also appears to be enough moisture trapped under the ridge to keep the rain threats going along a couple of weak fronts moving along a jet stream set up in the north. in addition, some moderate to heavy rainfall is likely from Florida west to the Texas coast in weaknesses under that subtropical high. It's a broad warm pattern, but as I have often said when it gets this widespread warm it usually does not get too hot.
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist
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