ICAP Weather Commentary
Monday October 6, 2008
Prepared by: Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist ICAP Energy
***Slow progression eastward of a western trough/eastern ridge pattern expected into mid month***
The weather pattern remains amplified which yields some departures both to the plus and minus side of normal. The main cool area is in the NW with a series of weak to moderate systems coming in off the Pacific. A secondary region is the NE where weak high pressure out of Canada resides though this will warm later in the week Energy from the western trough is streaking out into the Plains and Midwest as a cold front slides east this week. Some much needed rain is possible this for some dry areas of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, but nothing heavy is expected. In addition, the cooling behind this is not too impressive so a broad above normal bias in temperatures is noted this week from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Day 6-10 discussion:
The main difference this period is where the models set up the trough and ridge positions. The GFS is farther east into the central US with the current western low while the European is more Rockies oriented. Nothing seems to be moving too quickly so I am more inclined to follow the European here. The difference in temperatures is that the GFS goes widespread below normal which looks overdone in areal coverage. If the trough is in fact as amplified as both show, then an area of well below normal cold should be introduced into the Rockies. The eastern US high finally shifts far enough east to go above normal east of the Appalachians.
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist
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